Presidential election campaigns are underway in Cameroon and from every indication the results of the elections are a foregone conclusion.

Elections in Cameroon have never been free and fair and this year’s election will certainly not be an exception. There is a lot of excitement in Cameroon about the possibility of change coming to Cameroon. Have regime hawks become saints or have Cameroonians forgotten the past and has ELECAM, the country’s election body and the constitutional council changed their ways?

Cameroon is a country wherein there are no political miracles and the same personalities who robbed John Fru Ndi, the premier SDF chairman of blessed memory whose party beat Cameroon’s ruling party, the CPDM in 1992 in an election whose results could have transformed Cameroon’s political landscape in 1992 if John Fru Ndi had been given a chance.

The same political actors are still in place in the country. In 1992, they were younger, leaner and hungrier. After thirty three years in power, many of them are older, bigger and even nastier and are even determined to mess up the country before quitting the scene. To them, the messier, the merrier!

The incumbent, President Paul Biya is very likely to win the election. He is a player, a referee and a match delay in a game in which he has no intention of losing. His desire to stay in power is even stronger than it was in 1992 and from every indication he is in no rush to leave this planet. Those who think Mr. Biya will leave power simply do not know the man’s mindset. Some people even think he should be tired of power but real political analyst with insight knowledge of the political game know that power only tires those who do not have it. Biya has been a steady fixture on Cameroon’s political landscape for forty-three years and he is determined to make it fifty as he believes that his ancestors will be proud of him.

Mr. Biya and his men have their game plan which is unfortunately unorthodox and they are counting on the fact that the CPDM is the only party with a national presence. The CPDM is not a popular party but the fact that it is in every nook and cranny of the country gives it a massive advantage in this election which is considered by observers as a two-race horse.

Mr. Biya and his men have already rigged the election to their advantage. By controlling ELECAM and the constitutional council, the ruling party has put the odds to its side.

The rigging does not start and end with controlling the election bodies. Disqualifying candidates with the potential to threaten the senile Biya was part of the game plan. Prof. Maurice Kamto, the main opposition leader who many thought could topple Biya in the election was surgically removed from the election by a constitutional council led by a Biya protégé. Atanga Nji Paul, the country’s territorial administration minister, a man noted for his ruthlessness and uncouth behavior, was responsible for kicking Prof. Kamto out and since poverty hardly breeds virtue, Atanga Nji found a hungry and desperate person in Manidem, the political party which endorsed Kamto’s candidacy, to challenge Prof. Kamto’s candidacy and this trick worked like a charm leaving Kamto with a bloodshot eye and his supporters with broken hearts.

With Kamto out of the way, the ruling party felt the election would be a walk in the park. Little did the ruling party know that there could be another dark horse in the race and the dark horse which has turned out to be Issa Tchiroma, a man who has held many ministerial portfolios in the Biya government. Issa Tchiroma, the northerner who had been imprisoned by Mr. Biya after the April 6, 1984 coup d’etat in Cameroon has triggered a wave of insomnia among CPDM supporters.

Currently, Cameroon has run out of sleeping pills as Issa Tchiroma is rally Cameroonians. His program includes a three-year transition which will engineer a new constitution and a total revamping of the malicious system Mr. Biya has set up in his own interest.

Yaoundé has been caught up in whirlwind of fear as Issa Tchiroma knits effective alliances. Tchiroma is even prepared to sign a pact with the devil. He has already reached out to secessionists in the country’s two English-speaking regions and his visits to Bamenda and Buea over the last week have put the government in a talespin.

Tchiroma is apologizing to the country’s English-speaking citizens for all the humiliating and mendacious statements he made at the peak of the crisis when he was Biya’s communication minister. Tchiroma is even prepared to ally with the dead. He understands that a snake which does not cast its skin will not live long. His objective is to win power and pull Cameroon from the brink although many Biya supporters see him as a man full of vengeance. They suspect that if power falls into Tchiroma’s hands, he might take his pound of flesh and he will surely look for that which is closest to the heart.

The Biya regime has exhausted all its tricks. The public is aware what Mr. Biya and his ruling are capable of. Their tricks know no bounds and since the ruling party controls the country’s national assembly, it used the parliament to delay council and parliamentary elections to ensure Prof. Kamto’s party, MRC, which did not any parliamentarians and councilors did not qualify as a presidential candidate.

Despite all these tricks, the truth is that the Biya regime is on its last leg. Its free fall has commenced and its life span is maximum two years. All the numerous political maneuvers, including the SDF senator joining Atanga Nji in a CPDM campaign in Up-Station, Bamenda, are all vain attempts to postpone the CPDM’s agony.

Akere Muna and Joshua Osih, well known French Cameroon surrogates who have a track record of obstructing the Southern Cameroons cause have been told to take part in the October 12 election to give legitimacy and a semblance of Southern Cameroons’ participation. This is also failing and will certainly give the government and the elections a very bad name.

Thousands of eligible voters were reluctant to register, citing fears of election rigging or retribution from soldiers loyal to the regime in Yaoundé.

ELECAM has excluded candidates without providing clear reasons. The process for candidate vetting is shameful, disgusting and disgraceful.

The constitutional council is a Beti/Bulu tribal institution seen by critics as insufficiently independent and only makes decisions that favour the 92-year-old Biya.

There are concerns that elements of the Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) often used to suppress dissent, protests, or opposition activities are no longer willing to play the nasty role they have been playing.

The deployment of gendarmerie officers to protect ELECAM officials and prominent judges of the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Council has already taken place, signaling the Council’s readiness to declare Biya the winner.

Millions in French speaking Cameroon now see the outcome as a foregone conclusion, voter apathy in Southern Cameroons is very high, which tends to favour President Biya now known as the picture candidate.

Mr. Biya’s use of state resources to shape public perception, limit opposition campaigns, and control the flow of information has pushed Cameroonians to the brink.

Interfering in vote counting during this October election and using the Constitutional Council to declare Biya as the winner might be a grievous mistake that might trigger the end of a regime which has overstayed its welcome.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

Chairman/Editor-In-Chief

Cameroon Concord News Group