A covert operation is in motion to declare the 92-year-old Biya as winner of the October 12 presidential election, Cameroon Intelligence Report investigative team has uncovered.

The diabolic harsh ploy and high-stakes battle are being implemented and waged by a consortium of CPDM crime syndicates with the support of a  coalition of political powerbrokers, governors and traditional rulers, who are determined to guarantee Biya’s continued stay in power.

Some few hours ago, the South West governor’s office released a document claiming to be the official South West result in which Biya reportedly defeated his main challenger Issa Tchiroma Bakary.

But Cameroonians are watching. Democracy advocates, political commentators, and even ordinary citizens are beginning to push back. Will their voices be enough to stop this plot before it is too late?

Cat-calls have greeted the South West so-called results that were published in the French language with many wondering aloud why ELECAM officials in the South West who are all Anglophones should be releasing presidential election results in French.

As news of the South West region result spreads, reactions from Cameroonians have been swift and angry. From the streets of Garoua where Issa Tchiroma’s residence was cordoned off to online discussions, citizens are voicing their anger.

‘If they rig 2025, Cameroon will explode! We cannot keep watching them destroy our homeland’ an aide to Issa Tchiroma told Cameroon Intelligence Report

‘These CPDM criminals think we don’t know what they are doing, but we do. The political class wants us to believe that Cameroon is Biya and Biya is Cameroon! We must resist it’ a Douala based activist said.

‘They promised us that ELECAM will be independent, but what we are getting is an ELECAM that is run by the Minister of Territorial Administration. Cameroon is being hijacked!’ Rita Akana our Yaoundé city reporter observed.

‘Why are they afraid of releasing the election results after a process that went smoothly? If you say Biya has done well, you won’t need to manipulate ELECAM’ an Issa Tchiroma supporter was quoted as saying.

These voices represent the growing frustration among Cameroonians who feel betrayed by a political class that continuously undermines democracy and the rule of law.

The clock is ticking. Will Cameroonians let their votes be stolen before they are even counted?

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai with files

Vote counting is under way in Cameroon following Sunday’s presidential election in which incumbent Paul Biya is seeking to extend his 43 years in power.

Biya, who at 92 is the world’s oldest head of state, is being challenged by nine candidates. If he wins, it will be his eighth consecutive term in office, with the next election due in 2032.

Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji said that voting took place “hitch-free” across the country. But there was a call for a boycott in the English-speaking regions in the west and there were reports of clashes in the north.

The final result should be known within 15 days of the vote.

In the run-up to the election there were complaints from the opposition of attempts to suppress their support.

In August, the Constitutional Council barred 71-year old Maurice Kamto, widely viewed as the main challenger, from taking part.

On Sunday, angry supporters of leading opposition candidate and former Biya ally, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, 76, took to the streets in his stronghold of Garoua. They clashed with security forces, who fired tear gas, after his residence was cordoned off.

Earlier in the day, Tchiroma had said he was the subject of threats.

“It is not Tchiroma who is the problem, he told reporters, adding that he “places himself under the protection of God and the Cameroonian people.”

“I am at home; I will not move. If they intend to come and take me away from home, I will not move,” he declared.

Despite this Interior Minister Nji said the polls were held without major incidents in all 10 regions of the country.

He did not comment on the situation in Garoua but rather repeated previous claims that some presidential candidates were planning to publish the results of the election ahead of the official declaration.

Nji described this as a major red line, threatening action against anyone suspected of breaking the law.

In the two restive Anglophone regions, where separatists attempted to bar residents from voting, some did turn out at the polling stations. But many others stayed away for fear of reprisals.

Source: BBC

Bello Bouba Maigari is counting on being offered the presidency as a compromise to wedge off Issa Tchiroma Bakary, if the latter wins. “Bello is hoping to be Tshisekedied and Tchiroma Fayulued”, said an authoritative source associated to Bello’s campaign, in a good position to be believed.

The source was referring to the outcome of the presidential election of December 2018 in the Democratic Republic of Congo where it emerged that Martin Fayulu, the opposition consensual candidate backed by disqualified credible candidates including Jean Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, was the actual winner of the polls but Felix Tshisekedi, who came second by verified election results, was declared the winner because outgoing president, Joseph Kabila was uncomfortable about handing power to a radical and authentic opposition leader.

According to a TV5Monde (Information.TV5Monde.Com) report on 15 January 2019, titled “Elections en RDC : Martin Fayulu est-il le vrai vainqueur ?”, three authoritative international news outlets, The Financial Times, RFI and TV5Monde in collaboration with a DRC study group, obtained documents that attested to the fact that both the Congolese electoral commission and the Congolese Episcopal Conference (Bishops) have documented proof that Fayulu won the election.

Speaking to Cameroon Intelligence Report senior correspondent and a couple of other journalists in Yaoundé on 7 October, our source Bello was not going to agree to a coalition with Tchiroma because of the Tshisekedi/Fayulu calculation which he believes the regime in Yaoundé would resort to if it became evident they would lose the 12 October presidential election.

Our source, who is familiar with Cameroon’s early multiparty politics and connected at very high level in Cameroon and across Africa and the world, said he has been having conversations with well-placed personalities in Yaoundé and drew anecdotes from Cameroon’s 1992 post-election deadlock when certain credible national and international organizations said opposition SDF candidate, John Fru Ndi, defeated incumbent Paul Biya though the Supreme Court declared Biya as the winner.

“I’m aware of a conversation between then Minister of Territorial Administration, Gilbert Andze Tsoungui and Barrister Ben Muna where Tsoungui told Muna, ‘Do you think we can hand this country to a book seller who speaks neither French nor English? If it were you, we’d be sure the country would be in safer hands and we would tell President Biya that he has lost and there is nothing we can do’,” said our source.

Fru Ndi was famously referred to at the time as an illiterate book seller because he campaigned around the country in Pidgin English, widely understood around the country as a lingua franca, in a calculated quest to be understood by all and sundry.

Ben Muna was a former Cameroon Bar Council chairman (Batonnier), bilingual and son of former National Assembly speaker, Solomon Tandeng Muna. Though a fiery critic of the regime from his Bar position, breaking the government’s initial resistance to multiparty politics and later a topnotch member of the opposition SDF, he was considered within certain circles as someone the regime could accommodate, at the worst.

“The people in Yaoundé are more comfortable with Bello as a prince of the system from Ahidjo’s time,” said our source. “They are not comfortable with Tchiroma. They may tamper with the results and place Tchiroma third. But what I see in the crowds turning out for Tchiroma is an uprising or possibly worse if certain institutions decide to step in as has been seen in other places.”

From an early semblance of parity perceived from turnouts at rallies by Bello and Tchiroma ahead of the launch of official campaigns, Tchiroma clearly emerged as the frontrunner throughout the 15-day campaign, pulling unprecedented huge and energized crowds of supporters all over the country.

Even in Garoua, turnout at Bello’s rallies regressed to near nothing. “Bello’s rallies looked like the installation of subsection excos,” said a journalist covering both Bello and Tchiroma campaigns.

By Franklin Sone Bayen on special assignment in Garoua

Paul Biya, the world’s oldest president, wants to rule Cameroon at least until he’s 99. That has investors worried about strife in the African nation prone to conflict.

Biya, 92, has ruled the oil-exporting country for more than four decades and is likely to win the vote scheduled on Sunday. His advanced age and lack of a successor is a risk for investors in the nation’s $1.4 billion of foreign-currency bonds.

“It’s a seven-year term and the chances of him surviving that term, given that he would be 99 at the end of it, are fairly small, which opens the door to the power vacuum,” said Edwin Gutierrez, head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Abrdn Investments Ltd. “Investors overall are nervous heading into the elections, and understandably so.”

Most residents of Cameroon — home to 30 million people — have known no other leader. For now, that’s likely to remain unchanged after Biya’s administration barred his main opponent from running. But without Biya, the nation could see a power struggle as he hasn’t announced a succession plan.

The concerns have seen the premium investors demand to hold Cameroon dollar bonds over US treasuries widen since the end of September to 699 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. That compares with spreads of 425 for Nigeria and 595 for Angola, both of which have similar B- credit ratings at S&P Global Ratings.

Cameroon’s bond yield spreads “suggest investors may be factoring in uncertainty on long-term succession plans,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in London.

Constitutionally, in case the ruler dies in office, the president of the senate automatically becomes the interim leader, and must organize fresh elections no later than 120 days from the day of the vacancy.

That provision “is untested,” said Lenaic Couderc, an analyst at Moody’s Ratings. “Power is very centralized, which heightens the risk of a disorderly transition” if Biya dies in office, he said.

Meanwhile, Senate President Marcel Niat Njifenji, at 90, has been unwell.

About 40% of Cameroon’s population — where the median age is 18 years — live in poverty, according to the World Bank. The situation has remained unchanged from the two decades prior to 2021-22 when the country last carried out studies and estimated the poverty rate, the Washington-based lender said.

That’s a tinderbox at a time when many developing countries across the world battle to satisfy the so-called Gen Z protesters who are demanding better living conditions and job opportunities.

The election also comes amid an escalation of the Anglophone crisis, where separatists who have since 2016 been fighting for the independence of the two English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions, have vowed to prevent the vote in the areas. They are seeking a state of their own to be known as the Federal Republic of Ambazonia.

Majority of people in the nation speak French.

“Any intra-palace succession would spark protest among a population clamoring for an increased say in how the country is ruled and also for improved governance,” said Mark Bohlund, a senior credit analyst at REDD Intelligence. “Popular protests to a succession plan could still be seen as triggers of negative rating action or a bond market selloff.”

The International Monetary Fund forecasts the economy of the oil and cocoa exporter to grow 3.6% this year, unchanged from last year and lower than the 3.8% average projected for sub-Saharan Africa.

Provisional results of the poll are expected within days, and must be authenticated by the Constitutional Council no later than two weeks after the vote.

“The main uncertainty is not the election itself,” said Carlos De Sousa, a portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management. “The real question for investors is who will be the next president if he passes away.”

Source: Bloomberg

Barrister Nkongho Felix Agbor Balla who campaigned with Issa Tchiroma Bakary yesterday in Guider and Garoua in the North Region, says the lead candidate in the presidential election told him he would release Anglophone detainees within three months if he were elected president on 12 October.

“He assured me that within the next three months he will release all our brothers in detention,” said the human rights lawyer and political activist who flew to Garoua on yesterday morning and joined Tchiroma on the campaign trail.

Hundreds of Anglophone activists, including Sisiku Ayuk Tabe, Wilfred Tassang and eight other members of the “interim government” of the self-proclaimed Ambazonia republic, are serving life jail terms and other sentences. Many others are still awaiting trial.

Agbor Balla was the leader of the Anglophone Consortium that triggered the present Anglophone crisis in 2016. Following his arrest in early 2017, the crisis that began with demands for safeguards on Anglophone legal and education systems, snowballed into the present Ambazonia armed struggle under other leaders.

Agbor Balla declared his endorsement of Tchiroma in a statement issued from Garoua yesterday, saying, “Mr. Tchiroma’s recent public apology to Anglophones was not merely symbolic; it was a courageous and humane act of leadership. In acknowledging the pain and marginalization that many of our citizens have endured, he demonstrated humility and moral clarity; two qualities rarely seen in our political culture. It was a gesture that transcended politics, speaking directly to the conscience of our nation.

“Beyond apology, Mr. Tchiroma has articulated a bold vision for a transitional government, a peaceful and inclusive process aimed at rebuilding the foundations of our Republic. His proposal for a limited transitional mandate reflects the understanding that Cameroon must first heal, reconcile, and reform its institutions before it can truly prosper.

“My endorsement of Mr. Tchiroma is therefore not partisan. It is anchored in principle; the principle that our country’s salvation lies in dialogue, inclusion, and the moral courage to admit past wrongs and chart a new path forward.”

Agbor Balla later joined Tchiroma at campaign events in Guider and Garoua, both in Tchiroma’s home North Region.  Agbor Balla summarized his message at both campaign outings thus: “In both Guider and Garoua, my message was clear: …the power of the people is greater than the people in power.”

Speaking to me in Garoua after a day on the soapbox with the leading candidate in the election, Agbor Balla said, “I campaigned with Minister Tchiroma because I believe that the future of Cameroon must be built on dialogue, inclusion, and collaboration rather than division. Our country has suffered too long from polarization, mistrust, and exclusion.

“My decision was guided by the conviction that change will not come from isolation or rigid partisanship, but from engaging constructively even with those who may not share all our views. We may differ on certain issues, but we share a desire to see a peaceful, united, and democratic Cameroon.

“For me, standing alongside him was a statement that politics should be about ideas and the future of our nation, not enmity. Cameroon needs bridges, not walls.”                                                                                                                                       

Asked whether resolution of the Anglophone problem was part his discussions with Tchiroma, Agbor Balla said, “Yes, we discussed the Anglophone crisis, because it remains one of the most painful and unresolved issues in our country. Tchiroma has expressed his commitment to pursuing dialogue, justice, and reconciliation as the only sustainable path forward.”

By Franklin Sone Bayen on special assignment in Garoua

Cameroon’s electoral body Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) said Friday that 8,010,464 people have registered to vote in the country’s upcoming presidential election.

The voters include 3,716,567 women and 4,293,897 men, ELECAM said in a statement, adding that the vote will take place on Sunday at over 31,000 polling stations nationwide. Twelve candidates, including incumbent President Paul Biya, are competing in this election.

More than 6,500,000 people voted in the country’s last presidential election in 2018.

In a press conference on Friday, Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji warned that plans to disturb the poll “will not be tolerated and will face the full force of the law.”

Source: Xinhuanet

NUDP SG, Flambeau Ngayap suggests coalition still possible even this weekend

Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s vehicle drove out of the venue of what should have been his final rally in the Far North Region at about 7 :30pm this Thursday, abandoning thousands of supporters at the venue. Party officials say his motorcade left because of crowd disorder.

The Marche La Comice, which is now a cattle market in Maroua was filling up with supporters and FSNC militants since the afternoon, though the party’s candidate only arrived after nightfall. A security cordon put in place by local party officials and volunteers, and rehearsed to ensure Tchiroma was not mobbed as has been seen elsewhere, was broken by excited supporters when candidate’s motorcade drove into the venue. Security was overwhelmed.

For about an hour, Tchiroma waited in his car for calm to return to permit him to step out and mount the podium. When he stood up to face the crowd through the slide roof-top of his vehicle, supporters went wild with excitement. The more security pushed the crowds back, the more they surged forward. The candidate was forced to return into his car.

At about 7:30pm, Tchiroma’s vehicle slowly drove out of the venue without a word about what next: event posted to the next day or definitely cancelled? 

Fight for the Northern Regions

Tchiroma arrived in Maroua this Thursday from Mora and other parts of the Far North Region where he campaigned since he returned to the northern regions on Tuesday. He had campaigned in the West, Bamenda, Buea, Limbe and Douala last weekend before, pulling mammoth crowds everywhere.

His northern rival, Bello Bouba Maigari, who could become his ally at the end of the campaigns if declarations, even hushed, by certain party, can be taken seriously, has also been criss-crossing the northern regions, especially the vote-rich Far North, both men about on each other’s tracks.

This week of campaigning by both men looks like they are in a dog fight for dominance in their traditional fief. An observer in Maroua said yesterday, “The way Bello and Tchiroma are focused on the northern regions, especially the Far North, it looks like they are campaigning for local elections, for whose party would win more parliamentary and municipal council seats.”

Reacting, a journalist covering both campaigns said, the reason is likely because of the huge northern vote because, though the Far North Region alone accounts for over 16 percent of the national electorate, second to the Centre Region, the three northern regions together hold over 33 percent of the electorate and have similar voting patterns. Hence, “who the three northern regions vote for, could emerge the winner in this election,” the journalist said.

Coalition Still Possible?

Political commentators across the country and on social media are still hopeful that Bello and Tchiroma can pull together even at the last minute, though a statement issued by Bello’s NUDP on Wednesday, expressed bitterness over a remark on Monday by Tchiroma over Equinoxe TV, decribing Bello as a political lightweight. That notwithstanding, a comment by NUDP’s Secretary General Pierre Flambeau on Wednesday over Equinoxce TV might has rekindled hopes of a possible normalization of relations between the two northern rivals, paving the way for a last minute coalition. Ngayap said he did not want to divulge behind the scenes actions.

Bello Bouba is expected to hold a campaign rally in Maroua tomorrow, before moving back home to Garoua for his closing rallies, like Tchiroma. All eyes are on Garoua this weekend for the last ditch hope of a coalition between the two northern heavyweights.

By Franklin Sone Bayen on special assignment in Maroua