A Nigerian court on Wednesday dismissed a major opposition petition to overturn President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s February election victory after a highly contested ballot.

Judges dismissed all claims made by Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, including fraud, charges the electoral authority broke the law and allegations Tinubu was not eligible to run.

“This petition is hereby declared unmeritorious,” one of the judges said in the Abuja courtroom after more than six hours reading out their detailed judgement.

The court was also set to read its judgement on the second major opposition claim.

The challenges came after one of the country’s most tightly fought elections, where former Lagos governor Tinubu won 37 percent of the vote, beating Abubakar and Obi to secure the presidency of Africa’s most populous nation.

The decision will most likely now to head to appeal in the Supreme Court, which has never ruled to overturn a Nigerian presidential election since the country returned to democracy from military rule in 1999.

Legal teams in white wigs and black robes packed into the courtroom early Wednesday to hear judges read through each detail of the lengthy judgement.

Judges had also earlier dismissed a smaller opposition claim to annul the election.

Security was heightened around the court in the Nigerian capital, with police and defence forces cordoning off access to the building with roadblocks.

Tinubu’s government had dismissed all claims of wrongdoing and appeared confident before Wednesday’s decision.

Tinubu took office at the end of May and has quickly introduced a set of reforms the government says will help put Africa’s largest economy back on track.

He is in India for the G20 summit, where he hopes to drum up foreign investment.

Nullify or verify

The 2023 election was one of the most contested in the country’s modern history, thanks in part to the emergence of a major third-party candidate, Obi, to challenge the dominance of Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP.

Obi looked to appeal to younger voters who said they were hoping for an alternative to the old-guard candidates.

To improve transparency, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) introduced biometric technology and IReV, a central database for uploading results in real time.

INEC acknowledged “glitches” but dismissed claims the vote was not free and fair. But critics had said the technical problems and delays had allowed opportunities for vote manipulation.

In two major lawsuits, the PDP and Labour called for the results to be nullified and for their candidates to be declared the winner or for the court to order a rerun.

The PDP’s Abubakar called the vote a “rape of democracy.”

The party says it presented proof that INEC broke electoral law in its transmission of results, and that Tinubu failed to meet constitutional requirements.

Labour’s lawsuit followed similar allegations, referencing INEC breaking electoral law, vote rigging and also claims Tinubu was not qualified to run.

The court ruling comes as Nigerians struggle with a rising cost of living after the government ended a fuel subsidy programme that kept petrol prices low and also freed up the naira currency.

Government officials say the policies are needed to revive the economy, calling for patience and supplying state governments with funds to help offset the impact.

Tinubu’s government is also tackling huge security challenges, from jihadists still fighting a long war in the northeast to intercommunal clashes and kidnap gangs operating in other regions.

Source: AFP

Following the announcement by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that he was stepping down after nearly four decades in power, here are the world’s longest-serving leaders, except for monarchs.

40 years plus

Equatorial Guinea: The Soviet Union was still a decade from collapse when Teodoro Obiang Nguema came to power in a coup in the west African state of Equatorial Guinea in 1979.

Under his repressive nearly-44-year rule, Equatorial Guinea has become known as the “North Korea of Africa”.

Cameroon: The world’s oldest elected leader is 90-year-old Cameroonian President Paul Biya, who has ruled with an iron fist since November 1982.

Nicknamed “the Sphinx” for his inscrutable nature, leader, he won a seventh consecutive term in 2018 after elections marred by allegations of fraud.

30 years plus

Republic of Congo (also known as Congo-Brazzaville): Denis Sassou Nguesso, 78, has spent 38 years at the helm of the country in central Africa. He was president from 1979 to 1992, then returned in 1997 after a civil war and has remained in power ever since.

Uganda: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, 78, has led the central African country for 37 years. He was re-elected to a contested sixth term in 2021.

Iran: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been supreme leader of the Islamic republic since the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.

Tajikistan: Emomali Rakhmon, a former collective farm boss who came to power shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has had a firm grip on his poor, mountainous country for 30 years.

Eritrea: Former rebel leader Isaias Afwerki has been president of the reclusive Horn of Africa nation of Eritrea since it won independence from Ethiopia in May 1993.

– 20 years plus –

Belarus: President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has used Soviet-style repression to remain in power in Ukraine’s neighbour for 29 years.

Djibouti: President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who was re-elected to a fifth term in 2021, has been leader of the country that styles itself the “Dubai of Africa”, for 24 years.

Russia: Putin became prime minister in August 1999, then president the following year, and served two terms before swapping jobs with prime minister Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 only to reclaim the role of Kremlin leader in 2012.

Rwanda: Paul Kagame, a former Tutsi rebel leader who put an end to the Rwandan genocide of 1994, has been president of the small mountainous nation since 2000.

Syria: President Bashar al-Assad, who has clung onto power through a 12-year civil war, has also been in power for 23 years.

Longest ever: Castro

The longest-serving leader in history was Cuba’s revolutionary hero Fidel Castro, who spent 49 years in power. When he handed over in 2008 in his early 80s, it was to his brother Raul.

Source: AFP

The 71-year-old southerner took over from a 80-year-old northerner as Africa’s most populous nation faces a sea of economic troubles and security challenges.

“As president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria I will discharge my duties and perform my functions honestly to the best of my ability, faithfully and in accordance with the constitution,” Tinubu said in a live broadcast from the capital Abuja’s Eagle Square.

Foreign leaders and representatives present at the ceremony included presidents Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana as well as delegations from the US, Britain and China.

Kashim Shettima was sworn in as vice president, taking over from Yemi Osinbajo.

The ruling party duo were declared winners of the February 25 election, gaining the highest number of votes — 8.8 million — and picking up the required number of ballots across two-thirds of Nigeria’s states.

But Tinubu only garnered just over a third of the total vote, leaving him with a weak mandate, some analysts say.

The poor showing reflects “widespread disenchantment with his party’s record… along with misgivings about his personal eligibility for the office,” the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank said in a note.

Dubbed a political “godfather,” Tinubu campaigned on the slogan “it’s my turn” to govern the country, Africa’s biggest economy.

He has touted his experience as Lagos governor from 1999 to 2007 — a period that, supporters say, modernised Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub.

But the new president also faces corruption allegations, which he denies, and questions over his health.

Opposition leaders Atiku Abubakar, who came second, and Peter Obi, who was third, are contesting election results in court, claiming fraud.

The electoral commission acknowledged “glitches” during the vote but dismissed claims that the process was not free and fair.

Continuation

Buhari had promised to tackle graft and insecurity but disappointed many.

He bequeaths his successor mounting debt and inflation, as well as deepening concern over attacks and kidnappings by armed groups.

His presidency showed “it is possible for an individual believed by many to be personally incorruptible to preside over an administration that is nonetheless defined by corruption and rank incompetence,” said Ebenezer Obadare of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington-based think tank.

“Nigerians will soon find out whether a leader widely seen as corrupt can preside over a relatively malfeasance-free and reasonably competent administration,” Obadare wrote in a blog.

 Buhari is expected to leave Abuja on Monday to spend time at his farm in Daura, in Katsina State, near the border with Niger.

The two men might be different in style and reputation, but they also have key similarities.

They both adhere to Islam and are of an advanced age, in a country divided between Christians and Muslims and where the median age is 18.

Buhari made repeated medical trips to the UK when he was president, while Tinubu spent time abroad during the campaign and between the election and inauguration.

Speculation about Tinubu’s health is widespread, prompting attention to turn to his deputy Shettima, a 56-year-old former governor of the northern state of Borno.

Debt, insecurity

The new government faces a mountain of urgent work, starting with the economy.

One of the main challenges for oil-rich Nigeria is that it swaps crude worth billions of dollars for gasoline that it then subsidises for its domestic market.

This has caused a huge drain on revenue and foreign exchange, contributing to ballooning debt.

More than 80 million of the country’s estimated 210 million people live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, and the UN has warned that over of a quarter of those are facing acute hunger this year.

Despite thriving tech and entertainment sectors, many middle-class Nigerians are moving abroad hoping for a brighter future.

 Another priority for the incoming government will be to address insecurity, which has spread like wildfire in recent years.

Troops are battling gangs of heavily armed criminals and kidnappers in central and northwestern states, oil thieves, pirates and separatists in the southeast, and a 14-year-old jihadist insurgency in the northeast.

Complicating matters, national assembly elections produced greater political plurality this year, with seven parties represented in the incoming senate and eight in the next house of representatives.

“The next administration will need to work overtime to garner consensus on the legislative agenda,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja in a report for the Abuja-based Centre for Democracy and Development.

Governors, who also wield substantial power in Nigeria, were also being sworn in on Monday.

Source: AFP

Violence has surged in Nigeria following a brief lull for elections earlier in the year, serving as a cruel reminder of the significant security challenges faced by incoming President Bola Tinubu.

Barely a week goes by in Africa’s most populous nation without attacks or kidnappings by criminals known as “bandits” in the northwest and centre, jihadists in the northeast or separatists in the southeast.

It was feared that the frequency and intensity of the violence would threaten elections held in February and March, with the relative calm during the polls surprising many observers.

Tinubu, the 71-year-old winner of the presidential election, is set to be sworn-in on May 29.

He will take over from 80-year-old Muhammadu Buhari of the same party, who has been accused of not delivered on his promise to tackle entrenched insecurity during his two terms.

Despite the opposition claiming electoral fraud during the polls, officials have said the voting was free and fair, declaring Tinubu the winner.

One of the new government’s most urgent tasks will be to tackle insecurity, which has resurfaced in full force since April.

“More than 100 people dead and 3,000 displaced after clashes”, “25 kidnapped from a church”, “US convoy attacked by gunmen” — those are just some of the recent headlines in the country.

– ‘Little or no resistance’ –

For Emeka Okoro, security analyst with the Lagos-based consultancy SBM Intelligence, “the incoming president will likely face significant security challenges upon assuming office.”

The most urgent, Okoro told AFP, is in the centre and northwest of the country, where old tensions between herders and farmers have morphed into a deadly conflict involving heavily armed criminal gangs.

Impunity as well as insufficient security and wider government presence has allowed the violence to fester, Okoro said, despite some ongoing military operations against the groups.

Bandits “invade a community, kill people and destroy their properties, with little or no resistance from the security officials,” said Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar III, the Sultan of Sokoto, one of the states affected by the violence.

During the presidential campaign, Tinubu promised that he would “accelerate the reforms commenced” under Buhari “in building a more robust, re-energised armed forces.”

He said he would “recruit, train and better equip additional military, police, paramilitary and intelligence personnel.”

But for Idayat Hassan, of the Abuja-based Centre for Democracy and Development, the incoming administration should also move towards “a non-military” approach and address some of the root causes of the violence.

“This includes (tackling) unemployment, poverty, addressing real and perceived marginalisation, justice sector reform… stemming the flow of arms and securing the borders,” she said.

Jihadist conflict

A major front for the Tinubu administration is the 14-year-old jihadist insurgency in the northeast, which has resulted in some 40,000 deaths and two million more displaced.

Under Buhari, the military recaptured territory that had been under the control of the jihadist group Boko Haram. But rivals linked to the Islamic State group, ISWAP, have since emerged as the dominant threat.

The choice of Tinubu’s vice president Kashim Shettima, the former governor of the most affected region Borno State, could “make a lot of difference” in ending the conflict, Hassan said, though some have blamed Shettima for deteriorating security when he was in office.

In the southeast, Tinubu also faces separatist agitation, a highly sensitive issue in Nigeria where around one million people died in a three-year civil war in the late 60s between federal forces and Igbo secessionists.

To this day, some in the southeast feel marginalised and were disappointed that Igbo presidential candidate Peter Obi lost to Tinubu.

Hassan said she believed it is “unlikely security will improve in the southeast” unless the “Tinubu administration builds bridges.”

Many Nigerians are also hoping that the new government will put an end to years of grave human rights abuses reportedly committed by security forces across the country.

Human Rights Watch, one of the organisations that has documented rights violations in the country, has urged Tinubu to “reverse course on significant human rights backsliding.”

Source: AFP

Nigeria’s opposition renewed calls for the election result to be overturned on Thursday, a day after the country announced its new president-elect.

“We won the election and we will prove it to Nigerians,” third-place Labour Party candidate Peter Obi said at a news conference in the capital. He said that the election would be remembered as one of the most controversial in Nigeria’s history and that it was marred by irregularities.

Hours later, second-place candidate Atiku Abubakar with the Peoples Democratic Party also rejected defeat and said he was consulting with his lawyers on how to challenge the outcome.

“I have come to the conclusion that the processes and outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly election of last Saturday were grossly flawed in every (way) and as such must be challenged,” he told reporters in the capital, Abuja.

At least four other parties are joining them in challenging the results. They have three weeks from the day the final tally was announced to appeal.

But an election can be invalidated only if it’s proven that the national electoral body largely didn’t follow the law and acted in ways that could have changed the result. None of Nigeria’s presidential election results has ever been overturned by the country’s Supreme Court.

The opposition said the delay in uploading results from the country’s 177,000 polling stations to the electoral body’s portal could have made room for vote tampering. They said there was also voter intimidation and cases where people were barred from voting at all.

While there were inconsistencies in the results in Rivers and Imo states between the information gathered by observers on the ground and the results announced by the electoral body, it wasn’t enough to impact the election’s final outcome, said YIAGA Africa, Nigeria’s largest election observer group. Still, the issues spotted could just be the tip of the iceberg, it said.

President-elect Bola Tinubu of the ruling party received 37% of the vote in last weekend’s election and will be Nigeria’s first president to take office with less than 50%, analysts say. The main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, won 29% of the vote, while third-place finisher Obi got 25%, according to official results.

Tinubu, 70, faces a divided nation and many younger Nigerians doubt his ability to improve economic opportunities for all, let alone reduce violence and corruption in a country that is one of the world’s leading suppliers of oil.

While the opposition cried foul Thursday, Nigerians were uncharacteristically indifferent. Unlike after previous elections where people took to the streets to celebrate or protest, the streets in Abuja were largely empty as daily life continued. Tinubu’s supporters believe he won fairly and will be sworn in as president on May 29.

“We have voted for him and he has been sworn in. It is now his turn to help us and see the way Nigeria is suffering,” said Gbemisola Olabogun, a water seller in Lagos city. “He should please look into everything and make life easy for us all.”

Still, opposition supporters are holding out hope that the vote will be overturned.

“As far as I am concerned, Obi is my president,” said Chima Ekwueme a Labour Party supporter. “We will be here when he is declared winner,” he said.

Source: AP

Ruling party candidate Bola Tinubu won Nigeria’s highly disputed weekend election, electoral authorities said on Wednesday, securing the former Lagos governor the presidency of Africa’s most populous democracy.

With President Muhammadu Buhari stepping down after two terms, many Nigerians hoped Saturday’s vote would usher in a leader capable of tackling the country’s widening insecurity, economic malaise and growing poverty.

Tinubu, 70, the candidate for the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, won 8.8 million votes against 6.9 million for the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and 6.1 million for the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, according to final results.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, or INEC, confirmed Tinubu also secured the required 25 percent of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and capital, a threshold to be confirmed president.

“Tinubu, Bola Ahmed, of the APC, having satisfied the requirements of the law, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected,” INEC chairman Mahmood Yakubu said.

Even before the final tallies, Labour and PDP had already called for the vote to be cancelled, alleging massive manipulation of the results. It was not clear whether they would take their case to court.

Tinubu, 70, a longtime political kingmaker who ran on his experience as Lagos governor from 1999 to 2007, campaigned saying “It’s my turn” to govern Africa’s largest economy.

He promised “Renewed Hope” but faced questions from rivals over his health, past graft accusations and ties to Buhari, who many critics say failed in his promise to make Nigeria safer.

Supporters cheered and danced to Afrobeats music at the APC’s campaign headquarters in the capital Abuja as the final results were being tallied in the early hours of Wednesday.

“He had done it before, and we know that he will do better than what he did in Lagos,” said supporter Adenike Mutiat Abubakar, 43. “He’s the man of the people, so that’s why everybody wants him.”

Tight race

The election was a tight race for the first time since Nigeria ended military rule in 1999, after the Labour Party’s Obi, 61, drew younger voters with his message of change from his political old-guard rivals.

PDP’s Abubakar, a 76-year-old businessman and former vice president, lost his sixth attempt at the presidency.

Saturday’s voting was mostly peaceful, but was troubled by long delays at many polling stations and some intimidation by thugs, while technical hitches disrupted the uploading of results to the INEC’s central website, fuelling concerns over vote rigging.

“The election is irretrievably compromised,” Labour Party chairman Julius Abure told reporters on Tuesday. “We demand that this sham of an election should be immediately cancelled.”

The INEC introduced biometric voter identification technology for the first time at the national level and its IReV central database for uploading results to improve transparency.

But opposition parties said failures in the system to upload tallies allowed for ballot manipulation and disparities in the results from the manual counts at local polling stations.

Nigerian elections have often been marred by vote rigging, ballot buying, violence and clashes between rival parties.

But the INEC dismissed opposition allegations.

“Contrary to the insinuation by both parties, results emanating from the States point to a free, fair and credible process,” the INEC said.

It said parties should allow the process to run its course and then take their claims to court.

But international observers, including from the European Union, noted major logistical problems, disenfranchised voters and a lack of transparency by the INEC.

In 2019, the INEC was forced to delay the election by a week just hours before voting started. PDP’s Abubakar cried fraud when Buhari beat him that time around, but the country’s Supreme Court later tossed out his claim.

Lagos surprise

One surprise result was Obi’s victory in Lagos, the state with the largest number of registered voters and the traditional bastion of APC’s Tinubu, known as the “Godfather of Lagos”.

After a grassroots and social media campaign, Obi, a former Anambra State governor, managed to attract voters with a message that he offered change from Nigeria’s establishment politics.

The state’s eponymous megacity has put Nigeria on the cultural map with its glitzy Nollywood film scene and global Afrobeats stars like Burna Boy, but nearly half of Nigerians live in poverty and inflation is in double digits.

Security challenges awaiting Nigeria’s next leader are huge.

A grinding Islamist insurgency in the northeast has displaced more than 2 million, bandit militias carry out mass abductions in the northwest and separatists attack police in the southeast.

Nigeria is Africa’s top oil producer but struggles with sporadic fuel shortages, huge energy import bills due to a lack of refineries and crude theft from its wells and pipelines.

Source: AFP

Reaction among voters in the Federal Republic of Nigeria to the news that former Vice President Abubakar Atiku has been nominated as presidential candidate  to run under the banner of the Nigeria People’s Democratic Party has been mixed with a majority saying they don’t think we need another President Biya in Africa.

Many voters in the Federal Republic of Nigeria have so far been more adamant, including those who are expressing support for the so-called policy of zoning.

The Atiku campaign is not saying much for now and its communication department prefers to stick to the current talking points deep within the APC the ruling party.

Many voters are bashing the former Vice President over his continued stay in Dubai and coincidentally or not, Atiku has a long standing relationship with President Biya who runs Cameroon from the InterContinental Hotel in Geneva, Switzerland.

“Nigeria will always be the loser, why should anyone for God’s sake be supporting a man like Atiku who lives permanently in Dubai?  It is time for a neutral third option and I think that option is Governor Peter Obi,” Stephen Ademola, a Nigerian opinion leader in Ireland said.

“Obviously Atiku has a very good base of donors deep within the PDP party for his long record and also for being a Vice President under OBJ, but this will not provide him with any real advantage,” Lucky Okusun, another Nigerian contacted by Cameroon Concord News said.

Asked about the prospect of Bola Ahmed Adekunle Tinubu the 70-year-old Nigerian politician and poster boy of the All Progressives Congress running the country, and whether Nigeria similarly didn’t need another Buhari, Stephen Ademola was more emphatic. “It will be another empty eight years” Stephen Ademola said.

“I think it would be wonderful if Nigeria elects somebody like Governor Peter Obi who actually knows what to do and has lots of experience dealing the private sector,” added Ademola.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

“Owe ni Ifa npa, Omoran ni imo”

Ifa’s revelation is always in parables; only the wise can understand their meanings.

In his analysis of the Shakespearean Tragedy “Macbeth” Michael Stratford argues that the essence of human pride was covered in three dimensions by this work. He asserted in supports of the works of Majorie Garber on the play which concluded that Macbeth’s confrontation with morality at the end of the play portrayed “real recovery” and completed the depiction of the phases of pride in men. He went further to outline these stages as: The hubris that hurls a man into sin and error, the false pride that secure and justifies all and perpetuates us in evil acts, and the final realization of our immortality and futility of all things.

The play Macbeth has been analyzed by many due to its relevance in everyday human progression. Macbeth was a young and virile soldier honored for his love of Scotland and bravery at war by King Duncan. He was at the zenith of his profession as a soldier and revered titled gentleman in Scotland when the story started. A chance meeting with the “three witches”, their predictions of Macbeth as the King of Scotland, transported this gentleman into a murderer, a wicked usurper and finally, his death.

Given the level of public exposure to education against current public discourse about the rulers in Nigeria which pulls towards a group suspected of inadequacies in formal education, maybe this narrative could be brought home. Recent curiosity made me look into the Ifa esoteric  and cosmogony and I was amazed at the level of sophistication of the Odu Ifa in explaining and predicting main pattern of human conscious, and unconscious acts; going even further to reveal the purpose and destinies of humans on earth. I was further impressed by the manner with which knowledge and wisdom for managing pride and power were expressively itemized thorough the use of parables.

For noninitiates, the Ifa divinity comprises of sixteen major quadrant of ancient Yoruba Ifa cult, which was subdivided into 256 distinct sub-heads detailing all areas of human: wisdom for proper interrelations, truth and moralities, science, cosmology, metaphysics, medicine and other established norms of the Yoruba People of Southwest Nigeria as established by Orunmila. Orunmila the first Ifa priest was reputed to have started the accumulation of this knowledge base, handing it over to his sixteen children, who continued to practice and develop the Ifa practice.

The Odi Isa, noted amongst the Odu Ifa tried to balance power and pride; it depicts the travail of the Tiger, the king of the jungle when the entire animal challenged him to battle. The tiger despite his overwhelming power, applied wisdom and appealed to the elders for help. The elders asked the Tiger to perform a sacrifice and in respect to the words of the elders, the Tiger performed all necessary rites. And to this day, no animal was able to conquer the tiger.

Tiger’s power though vast and reputed never for once doubted that the whole animal kingdom could overrun him and take over his kingdom. When faced with adversities, he went begging the elders for advice. Instead of ruin and death as in Macbeth case, the tiger excel and its kingdom expanded.

Many writers in the pre-2015 era had lauded the achievements of the new progressives led by General Mohamadu Buhari and Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The duo in conjunction with other heavy weights in Nigerian politics had performed the first presidential election upset in Nigerian history; the defeat of a sitting president in a general election. The global press was agog in the spirit of the wave of change coming to Nigeria politics. The emergence of Buhari as the new government leader was heralded as a milestone in Nigerian political arena.

Given sixteen years politicking before his emergence as the president, people were thoroughly misled that the “Buhari presidential dream” was driven by passionate goals for real change, when the new government started showing signs of unpreparedness to rule and obvious lack of cohesion in policy in its first few years in office. Nigerian people still believed and attributed this to huge challenges emanating from long period of institutionalized corruption by previous governments. Nigerian new government was later revealed to have been distracted by huge amount of propaganda, vain retribution, illegal and unnecessary arrests and prosecutions in its first year in power. Apparently, governance and economy finally start to show negative growth. Before the end of the second year, the country which was previously reputed as one of the ten growing global economies was in recession.

Economic indicator aside, the failing security architecture has been witnessed in all theaters of operation. Conflict escalations in most areas were being witnessed. Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) continued to rise as repetitive conflicts engulfs the state. Youth and elites migration have more than doubled within three years, and statistics on youth unemployment is reading above one third of population. The national currency’s value in international trade fell by over 200 percent in the first year of this government and it took direct intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria to shore up the Naira to its current 360 to one dollar status. Failed economy, repetitive conflicts, insurrections, low school attendance, thriving illicit economies, and high youth emigration, according to Mary Kaldor are signs of failing states.

The constant stay outside the country by the president was a minor issue until the whole world was treated to the caricature of Nigerian President’s show of shame in faraway Poland on the Saturday Night Show recently. The lack of grace and charisma that goes with the esteemed office of the president of Federal Republic of Nigeria, the representative of over 200millon people, and  one of the fastest growing states globally by apparent lack of charisma displayed by the president and his minders. Most posits that the posture reflects apparent lack of understanding of the power and privileges garnered over the years by the Nigerian State in global politics.

Tinubu rise to stardom in Nigerian politics was midwifed by the NADECO movement against military rule in the late eighties and early nineties. The movement which led to the emergence of this ongoing republic equally blessed BAT with the governorship of the most priced state in Nigeria, Lagos. Lagos represents the hub of commerce and economy of Nigeria controlling over 25% of Nigeria economy and the claim of Nigeria as the giant in Africa business resides in the economic performance of Lagos State. Eight years direct rule, twelve years of his protégés ruling, characterized by unashamed plundering of Lagos state’s resources has created a new  “Czar” in Lagos. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the political czar of Southwest Nigeria was born.

By 2014, Tinubu had in his control a war-chest big enough to start and prosecute any political war in Nigeria against any opposition. When Tinubu pitched his tent against President Goodluck Jonathan. He midwifed an impossible coalition of unlike minds from several parties to form the All Peoples’ Congress (APC)  in supports of Buhari. The die was cast, Tinubu’s prowess and political machinery was founded on the Lagos State dynasty. This base he has always controlled since 1999. Experts have posited that the loss of Lagos by the Tinubu gang will surely sound the kernel of his political demise.

Recent happenings have shown the arrival of the new Tinubu. Four month to the 2019 general elections, Tinubu unilaterally influenced the removal of the name of the incumbent governor of Lagos State from the ballot and imposed a new man as the party representative. A move that reportedly irked some locals and party faithful. Obviously, Tinubu’s power as sole godfather and power broker in Lagos politics was on test during the 2019 February elections looms.

Buhari’s reign and reelections as president was supported by the Tinubu’s camp. The alliance many agreed was based on the pact to return Tinubu as president in 2023. This ambition has fueled the unalloyed support from Lagos APC for Buhari’s return. It’s a big gamble on the path of Tinubu and Buhari. Like the proverbial fly, Buhari has tasted the wine and is ready and willing to die in the same cup of wine. Tinubu ambition might also turn him to the fly that refused to heed the warnings of the elders and has decided to follow the corpse into the earth.

Ambition is necessary to achieve and progress in life, yet ambitions should be ethically based, no normal leader will continue to aspire to hold and office in which he does not have capacity for managing, and no normal human being will sacrifice the future of his people, merely for his sole selfish ambition.

Ambition contaminated by acute pride surely begets disaster. Macbeth ambition was fueled by greed and selfish ambition to rule Scotland, never because he was a pushed by a need to work out a better society for his people. His endgame led to war and carnage pushing Scotland which was growing as a nation into complete recession and pillage by ravaging armies.

Tinubu contesting the presidential elections in 2023, might be met with high resistance by Lagos and the people of Western Nigeria, given current apathy and political inequalities current leaders have imposed on the public. Unlike, the Tiger, Tinubu might probably resort to the use of might against his enemies with the Federal might behind him,  but he should remember Macbeth, won the seat of King of Scotland but lost the heart of its homeland to civil wars and marauders.

Wisdom and respect for the animals led the Tiger to the elders. Tinubu and Buhari have achieved the impossible in Nigerian politics; plundered its commonwealth shamelessly, many would say; “the time has come for them to both respect the people and leave the scene for others in 2023”. But if they refuse, remind them of Macbeth: Unrestrained pride and ambition, the elders say always lead to death and destruction.

By Don Michael Adeniji is a Contributing Editor for Cameroon Concord News Group and an expert in Terrorism, International Crime and Global Security