Cameroon is facing a new economic challenge as soaring diesel import costs threaten to reverse recent progress in containing inflation while increasing pressure on public finances.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the country’s diesel import cost climbed 60.7% between February and May 2026, rising from CFA489.72 ($0.85) to CFA786.93 ($1.37) per liter. Over the same period, the import cost of gasoline increased 33.6%, from CFA422.71 to CFA564.56 per liter.

The figures, published in the INS monthly consumer price report for May, come as geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and disruptions to global shipping continue to drive up the cost of refined petroleum products. Cameroon remains heavily dependent on imported fuel after a fire severely damaged the National Refining Company (SONARA), the country’s only refinery, in May 2019.

Citing data from the Hydrocarbon Price Stabilization Fund (CSPH), the INS said the sharp increase reflects rapidly deteriorating supply conditions.

“The changes mainly result from higher international prices for refined petroleum products, rising maritime transport costs, and increased risk premiums linked to geopolitical uncertainty in a strategic region for global energy supplies,” the institute said.

Diesel poses the greatest risk to the economy

The INS identifies diesel as the country’s main economic vulnerability because of its central role across multiple sectors.

Diesel powers road transport, agriculture, industrial operations, construction equipment, and backup generators. As a result, higher import costs could spread throughout the economy by increasing transportation expenses, logistics costs, and production costs.

“The diesel market appears to be the main source of vulnerability for the national economy,” the institute said. International diesel prices have risen by nearly 89% in just a few weeks, limiting businesses’ ability to absorb higher costs and increasing the likelihood that they will be passed on to consumers.

Food prices are among the areas most exposed. More expensive freight could raise the cost of transporting agricultural products over long distances to urban markets. Manufacturers and other businesses could also face higher energy bills, putting additional pressure on production costs and, eventually, retail prices.

The risks are emerging even as inflation remains relatively contained. Consumer prices increased 0.9% in May from April, the largest monthly rise since the beginning of the year. Annual inflation reached 2.7%, up from 2.1% in April, while the 12-month average stood at 2.6%, still below the 3% convergence ceiling set by the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC).

Higher import costs could strain public finances

The rise in fuel import costs also creates a budget challenge for the government. Maintaining regulated pump prices while import costs continue to increase requires greater financial support through Cameroon’s fuel price stabilization mechanism. The wider the gap between international fuel prices and domestic regulated prices, the greater the fiscal burden.

The government faced a similar situation in 2022 following the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fuel subsidies exceeded CFA1 trillion, according to figures disclosed by President Paul Biya in his December 31, 2023 address to the nation.

To reduce that burden, authorities raised retail fuel prices twice, in 2023 and again in 2024. Those increases helped lower subsidy costs to CFA640 billion in 2023 and CFA263 billion in 2024, but they also fueled inflation and reduced households’ purchasing power while increasing operating costs for businesses.

The latest increase in import costs therefore leaves policymakers facing another difficult trade-off: protecting public finances while avoiding another rise in fuel prices that could further weaken consumers and businesses.

A warning sign rather than a full-blown shock

The INS notes that current import prices remain below the peaks recorded during the 2022 global energy crisis. May 2026 import costs represented about 59% of the July 2022 record for gasoline and 71% of the peak for diesel. Even so, the pace of the increase since February has become a growing concern.

Much will depend on how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East evolve. A rapid easing could stabilize oil markets, while a prolonged or worsening crisis would likely intensify pressure on fuel import costs, government finances, and consumer prices.

For Cameroon, the immediate risk is not that higher fuel costs have already triggered widespread inflation, but that they gradually spread through the broader economy. If diesel import prices continue to climb, they could drive up transportation costs, food prices, business expenses, and the fiscal cost of keeping pump prices under control.

Source: ecofin agency